Gespräch über Hintergründe zum Konfliktgeschehen in Sudan

Erschienen in UNEINS Magazin 3/2025, Juli 2025

Sudans Geschichte ist von zahlreichen Kriegen und gewaltsamen Konflikten geprägt. Können Sie uns einen Überblick zur Kolonialgeschichte des Sudan geben?

Zu Beginn des 19. Jahrhunderts war Sudan noch kein einheitlicher Staat. Das Gebiet war in unterschiedliche Sultanate und andere Herrschaftsformen unterteilt. Ab 1820 eroberten Kräfte aus Ägypten weite Teile des heutigen Staatsgebiets. Ägypten unterstand zu der Zeit der osmanischen Oberhoheit – der albanische Herrscher Muhammad Ali hatte es vorrangig auf Gold und Sklav:innen abgesehen, um seinen regionalen Einfluss zu vergrößern. Bereits unter dem turko-ägyptischen Einfluss galten dunkelhäutige Menschen aus dem Westen oder Süden als Sklav:innen, auch wenn sie Muslime wurden.

Gegen Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts setzte sich zunächst eine einheimische Widerstandsbewegung um den Mahdi durch, eine religiöse und politische Erweckungsfigur, die einen erfolgreichen Aufstand gegen die koloniale Besatzung anführte (1883-98). Dabei gerierte sich die Mahdi-Herrschaft als Verteidiger marginalisierter Gruppen – die Armee bestand überwiegend aus Menschen aus Darfur und dem Süden. 1898 besiegten britische Truppen die Mahdi-Herrschaft und dehnten damit ihre Dominanz des Nilbeckens von Ägypten bis nach Sudan aus. Den Süden des Landes erklärten die Kolonialherren ab den 1920ern zum „geschlossenen“ Gebiet, wodurch der Aufbau von Infrastruktur und Zugang für Nicht-Einheimische beschränkt wurde. Das Sultanat von Darfur wurde erst 1916 Teil Sudans.

Die britisch-ägyptische Kolonialherrschaft beutete Rohstoffe, Arbeitskraft und Land in fruchtbaren Gebieten des Sudan im Zentrum aus. Gleichzeitig hatte Großbritannien das strategische Ziel, den eigenen Einflussbereich am Nil zu erweitern. Der Nil war zur Kontrolle von Ägypten entscheidend und Ägypten wiederum für den Suez-Kanal und die Route nach Indien. 

1956 wurde der Sudan unabhängig. Mit welchen Herausforderungen war das Land in Folge konfrontiert? 

Die Geschichte des Sudan seit der Unabhängigkeit ist geprägt von Bürgerkriegen und Militärherrschaften, aber auch von zivilen Aufständen dagegen. 

Seit 1956 wurde der Sudan die meiste Zeit von Militärs, die durch Putsche an die Macht kamen, regiert. Im selben Zeitraum gab es aber auch drei zivile Aufstände, die zum Sturz der jeweiligen Militärregierungen führten. Die Oktoberrevolution von 1964, die die Militärherrschaft von Ibrahim Abboud beendete, und der Aufstand 1985, der zum Sturz von Jafa’ar Nimeiri führte, sind bis heute wichtige Bezugspunkte, auf die sich z.B. auch die Revolutionsbewegung 2018/2019 berief. 

Zwei von insgesamt drei großen Bürgerkriegen im Sudan fanden zwischen Rebellenbewegungen im Süden – dem heutigen Südsudan – und Regierungen im Norden des Sudan statt. Der erste Bürgerkrieg von 1955 bis 1972 endete mit Zugeständnissen zugunsten der Autonomie des Südsudans. Im zweiten Bürgerkrieg von 1983-2005 waren die Kämpfe zwischen der Rebellenbewegung Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) sowie einer abtrünnigen Fraktion, die von der Regierung in Khartum unterstützt wurde, über weite Teile verlustreicher als Auseinandersetzungen zwischen SPLM und Regierungsarmee. 

Zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts brach ein weiterer Bürgerkrieg aus. Welche Ursachen gab es für den Darfur-Konflikt?

Die Geschichte und Politik Sudans ist geprägt von der Ausbeutung von Ressourcen und Arbeitskräften der Peripherie durch die wechselnden politischen Akteure im Land. Dies führte zu Gegenbewegungen in verschiedenen Teilen des Landes, besonders im Westen in der Region Darfur. Anfang der 2000er bildeten sich dort Rebellenbewegungen, gegen die die Regierung einen Krieg führte. Dieser wirkte sich stark zu Lasten der Zivilbevölkerung aus. 

Für den Darfur-Konflikt sind Auswirkungen der Klimaveränderung von großer Bedeutung. Sie betreffen die Region besonders stark; die erratischen Regenfälle und die Ausweitung der Wüste nach Süden führten zu einer Veränderung der saisonalen Migrationsbewegung. Das veränderte das Verhältnis zwischen nomadischer und sesshafter Bevölkerung, die oft unterschiedlichen Volksgruppen angehören, die „arabisch“ bzw. „afrikanisch“ gelesen werden. Dieses Konfliktpotential wurde von verschiedenen Seiten weiter politisiert und instrumentalisiert. 

Die Rebellen kamen aus nicht-arabischen Bevölkerungsgruppen aus Darfur, insbesondere den Zaghawa, Fur und Masalit. Gegen diese setzte die damalige Regierung unter Omar al-Bashir bereits bestehende Milizen ein, die sich aus arabischen Volksgruppen rekrutierten. Diese Milizen wurden bewaffnet, ausgebildet und arbeiteten mit dem formalen Militär zusammen. Sie wurden lokal Janjaweed (“Teufelsreiter”) genannt. Aus einer Gruppe der Janjaweed entstand 2013 die paramilitärische Miliz Rapid Support Forces (RSF), die im aktuellen Konflikt eine große Rolle spielt. Die Janjaweed gingen oft brandschatzend, plündernd und mordend gegen die nicht-arabische Zivilbevölkerung vor. Millionen von ihnen wurden vertrieben und blieben teilweise auch 20 Jahre nach Beginn des Kriegs noch in Vertriebenenlagern.

Die RSF besiegten die meisten bewaffneten Rebellengruppen schließlich, deren Reste sich nach Libyen zurückzogen. 2020 handelten Vertreter dieser besiegten Gruppen mit RSF und der Armee ein Friedensabkommen aus, das ihnen den Zugang zur Macht brachte und den Konflikt beendete – letzteres allerdings nur auf dem Papier.

2011 wurde der Südsudan unabhängig. Was bedeutete das für den Rest Sudans?

Die Unabhängigkeit Südsudans war in dem Umfassenden Friedensabkommen von 2005 als Möglichkeit vorgesehen. 2011 entschied sich die Bevölkerung des Südsudans in einem Referendum für die Unabhängigkeit. Dadurch verlor der Rest Sudans seine wichtigste Einkommensquelle: Ein Großteil der Staatseinnahmen und des Brutto-Inlandsprodukts kam aus der Ölindustrie. Die meisten Ölquellen befinden sich jedoch im Südsudan. Auch erhebliche Transferzahlungen für den Transport des Öls über Pipelines in Sudan zum Roten Meer konnten den Verlust dieser Einnahmequelle nicht ausgleichen. Das wurde zum Problem für das Regime von Omar al-Bashir. Das Regime praktizierte ein Patronage-Modell, durch das Treibstoff, Mehl und Medikamente für Eliten und die städtische Bevölkerung stark subventioniert wurde. Im Herbst 2018 wurden diese Subventionen zurückgefahren, was zu Protesten führte, die sich zuerst gegen den daraus folgenden Anstieg von Brotpreisen richteten.

Zur Revolution 2018/2019 und der Rolle der Jugendbewegungen darin gibt es bereits einen Beitrag im vorliegenden UNEINS Impulse. Können Sie uns erläutern, was nach dem Sturz von al-Bashir geschah?

Nach monatelangen Massenprotesten kam es schließlich zum Sturz von Bashir im April 2019. Das Militär und der Geheimdienst, die Bashir in einer Palast-Revolte entfernt hatten, glaubten, durch die Entfernung dieser Führungsfigur das System bewahren zu können. Das durchschauten die Protestierenden allerdings sofort. Sie verweigerten den Abbau des großen Protestcamps vor dem Militärhauptquartier im Zentrum von Khartum und forderten: “Wir wollen eine Madaniya, eine zivile Herrschaft”. Das Protestcamp bestand mehrere Monate lang. Im Morgengrauen des 3. Juni 2019 überfielen und zerstörten Sicherheitskräfte das Protestlager, töteten über 120 Menschen, vergewaltigten und verfolgten einzelne Protestierende. Doch trotz Internetsperren schaffte es die sudanesische Zivilgesellschaft Ende Juni, eine nie dagewesene Mobilisierung auf die Beine zu stellen – nicht nur in Khartum, sondern im ganzen Land. Gleichzeitig gab es Verhandlungen auch mit Unterstützung der Afrikanischen Union und Äthiopiens zwischen politischen Parteien, Gewerkschaften, Berufsverbänden und dem Militär, die schließlich im Sommer 2019 zur Einigung auf eine zivil-militärische Übergangsregierung führten. 

Wie kam es zum Kriegsausbruch 2023?

Der Übergangsregierung kam zunächst große Unterstützung und Euphorie in Sudan und in der Welt zuteil. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt war der Staat jedoch bereits ausgelaugt. Die Ministerien waren zuvor von Personen besetzt, die oft unqualifiziert waren, weil sie nur aufgrund ihrer Loyalität zum Regime diese Posten erhalten hatten. Sie wurden breitflächig entfernt, der Staat hatte im Anschluss jedoch sehr wenige Kapazitäten, um Reformen umzusetzen. In der Folge gab es Unruhen, gleichzeitig versuchten auch Kräfte des gestürzten Bashir-Regimes – er selbst war im Gefängnis – zurückzukommen. Diese Regierung hielt sich für rund zwei Jahre, bis es zu einem Putsch kam. Die paramilitärische RSF und die Armee putschten zusammen, bzw. sie entfernten die zivilen Anteile der Regierung, da sie selbst schon in der Regierung vertreten waren. Ihr Ziel war es, eine Technokraten-Regierung ohne zivile Parteien durchzusetzen. Das wollte die Zivilbevölkerung aber nicht zulassen. Es kam erneut zu langanhaltenden Protesten.

Konsultationen in diesem Zeitraum wurden von der zivilen Mission der Vereinten Nationen UNITAMS zusammen mit weiteren Akteuren geführt. Zum Sommer 2022 zeigte sich das Militär offen für Gespräche mit den zivilen Politikern der vorherigen Regierung, die fortan überwiegend unter sich im kleinen Kreis verhandelten, um die Putschsituation zu beenden. Sie einigten sich im Dezember 2022 auf ein sogenanntes Rahmenabkommen, mit dem der Grundstein für eine ausschließlich zivile Regierung gelegt werden sollte. Zuvor sollte es zur Beilegung von Streitfragen kommen, zu der auch das Thema der Sicherheitssektorreform gehörte: Wie sollte der Sicherheitssektor konkret organisiert werden? In welchem Zeitraum sollte die RSF in die Armee integriert werden? Wem sollte die RSF in der Zwischenzeit unterstehen? Am Ende gab es keine Einigkeit. Das war der Auslöser für die Schüsse und den Ausbruch des Kriegs zwischen den RSF und der sudanesischen Armee am 15. April 2023. Gleichzeitig war es eine Gelegenheit für Kräfte des früheren Regimes von Bashir, ihre Machtbasis auf Seiten der Armee und zulasten jedweder demokratisch gesinnter Kräfte zu vergrößern.

Im Unterschied zu vorherigen Bürgerkriegen Sudans begann dieser Krieg also im Zentrum des Landes und der Macht zwischen zwei konkurrierenden militärischen Einheiten. Auch wenn viele in der Zivilbevölkerung grundsätzlich beide militärischen Lager ablehnen, reicht der Krieg mittlerweile immer stärker in die ethnisch-sozialen Differenzen der Gesellschaft hinein. Hassrede und ethnisch basierte Mobilisierung spielen auf allen Seiten eine zunehmende Rolle.

Welche Rolle spielen internationale Akteure im aktuellen Konflikt?

Die internationale Einmischung ist massiv. Ausländische Regierungen unterstützen die Kriegsparteien und verlängern dadurch den Krieg. Auf der einen Seite unterstützen vor allem die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate (VAE) die RSF, auch wenn sie das immer wieder leugnen. Diese Unterstützung geht über viele Nachbarstaaten des Sudans weiter, wo sich die VAE Einfluss erkauft haben, insbesondere über Tschad, Südsudan, aber auch über Uganda und Kenia sowie über Teile Somalias. Auf der anderen Seite steht die Armee, die die Regierung kontrolliert und auch von den Vereinten Nationen (VN) anerkannt wird. Sie sitzt mittlerweile in Port Sudan, da Khartum zwischenzeitlich stark umkämpft war. Die Armee wird militärisch von Ägypten unterstützt, dem traditionell wichtigsten Verbündeten. Zusätzliche Waffen und andere militärische Unterstützung kommen aus Iran, der Türkei, und von Russland. 

Protecting Civilians in Sudan

Even without a Ceasefire, There Are Ways to Curb the Brutal Violence against the Civilian Population

SWP Comment, 8 July 2025 (available in German, too)

The war in Sudan, which broke out on 15 April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has triggered the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. Civilians are being directly attacked by the warring parties. The violent actors are destroying civilian infrastructure and blocking humanitarian aid as part of their war strategy. Some are also targeting members of specific identity groups, including on an ethnic basis. At the same time, the parties to the conflict claim to be protecting the civilian population. International efforts to pro­tect the civilian population or particularly vulnerable groups have so far been largely unsuccessful. Calls for military intervention have little chance of success in the current global situation. In fact, the committed efforts of Sudanese citizens to protect themselves and others around them deserve more attention and support. Pro­tection efforts can help alleviate the suffering of the civilian population, even if an end to the war remains out of reach.

On Sunday, 13 April 2025, the RSF captured the Zam-Zam IDP (internally displaced per­sons) camp in North Darfur. Until then, it had been the largest camp for IDPs in Sudan, containing at least half a million people. Some of them had been living there for more than 20 years, since the time they had fled from the RSF’s predecessors. According to the United Nations (UN), around 400,000 people fled the camp in just two days follow­ing its capture by the RSF, and more than 400 civilians were killed in or near the camp. One survivor told Reuters that the RSF killed 14 people who had taken shelter in a mosque. Mohammed, another survivor, said in an online press interview that the RSF had labelled the residents as “slaves”. He said that armed young people from the camp had con­tinued to resist the RSF until their ammu­nition ran out. “Without them, many more people would have been killed”, he said.

Conversely, the RSF said on their official Telegram channel that they had saved the people in Zam-Zam from the “mercenaries” in the “military base”. Abdelrahim Hamdan Dagalo, deputy leader of the RSF, was there himself and had ordered the “securing” of the camp, according to the RSF. Its leader, Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, Abdelrahim’s brother, announced the formation of a gov­ernment for “peace and unity” in a speech two days after the camp was captured. This government is supposed to serve all Suda­nese, especially those who “have ever felt forgotten, marginalised or excluded”, said RSF leader Dagalo, who is also known as Hemedti.

At the Sudan conference in London on 15 April 2025 – the same day as Hemedti’s speech – the states and international orga­nisations present were unable to agree on a joint final declaration. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, both supporters of the SAF, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), supporters of the RSF, were able to block an agreement. Less than one-sixth of the required inter­national aid for Sudan and the neighbour­ing states was pledged at the conference.

The protection of civilians has long been politicised in Sudan. All parties to the con­flict claim not only to be fighting in the interests of the civilian population, but also to be taking specific measures to protect them from violence. These claims are in stark contrast to their actual behaviour.

Civilians as a target

Violence against the civilian population is not a mere by-product of warfare in Sudan, it is an intrinsic aspect of the behaviour of the warring parties and their respective allies. Both the UN as well as national and international non-governmental organisa­tions (NGOs) have presented numerous detailed reports on the human rights situa­tion in Sudan. At the same time, difficulties in accessing certain regions and the some­times severely restricted telecommunica­tion services mean that many incidents are un­likely to appear in the reports. As a result, there are no exact figures on how many people have already died in the war. How­ever, it is likely that the number of direct and indirect victims has passed six figures.

The danger to the civilian population is first and foremost due to the type of mili­tary action: When using artillery, barrel bombs or other explosive weapons in cities, the warring parties do not differentiate sufficiently between combatants and non-combatants. The RSF shell hospitals with artillery and strike power stations and other civilian infrastructure with drones; the army shells schools, markets and residential areas. Both parties arrest, torture and kill humani­tarian personnel, volunteers and human rights defenders, who they accuse of cooper­ating with the other side. These are the find­ings of the Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan set up by the UN Human Rights Council.

The RSF are looting and pillaging in the places they conquer. Instead of receiving adequate pay, their troops are given a licence to loot. In addition, the RSF use sexual violence across the board, destroy agricultural equipment and rob warehouses, which jeopardises the food supply. In the Zam-Zam camp, RSF units killed the last remain­ing medical staff belonging to the NGO Refugees International before capturing it.

According to the UN panel of experts, 10,000 to 15,000 people are said to have been killed in attacks by the RSF between June and November 2023 in El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur. As a result of these attacks, a large part of the Masalit community fled across the border to Chad – their expulsion was obviously a goal of the RSF. The US State Department formally catego­rised the RSF’s actions as genocide.

The warring parties also benefit from massive external support – military, logis­tical, financial and political. The RSF are primarily supported by the UAE, with Chad, South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya and the Somali region of Puntland making their respective contributions. The SAF cooperate primarily with Egypt, Russia, Turkey, Eritrea and Iran.

However, the violence against the civilian population is not only being committed by the RSF and the SAF. Although the war began as a war between these military units, it has now spread to segments of society. Both sides use ethnically connoted rhetoric to mobilise and recruit. Some units are recruited on a tribal basis; they see the fight as an opportunity to realise their own goals against hostile groups.

Events in the state of Al-Jazeera illustrate the complexity of the violence: The RSF con­trolled the central Sudanese state – to which many people had also fled from Khartoum – between December 2023 and January 2025. The Sudan Shield Forces militia – under the leadership of Abu Aqla Kikel, a former SAF officer – played a key role in this. Under his leadership, the RSF captured the state capital, Wad Madani. In October 2024, however, Kikel defected back to the army and secured the recapture of the state a few months later.

Armed conflicts had not affected Al-Jazeera in the past. It was home to the country’s most important granary. In prior decades, seasonal labourers from other parts of the country – and from what is now South Sudan – went there. They settled there and were known as “Kanabi”. Many of them lived in camps outside the villages of the local population. The state did not provide these camps with public services such as schools and health centres, which were available in the established villages. The RSF knew how to capitalise on the resulting latent tensions by using the lan­guage of the disenfranchised. However, many Kanabi came from so-called “African” ethnic groups from the west of the country and were not treated equally by either the RSF or the Shield Forces, as a women’s rights activist from Al-Jazeera described. The RSF attacked villages they suspected of being close to Kikel after he rejoined the army. Conversely, Shield Forces attacked the Kanabi after recapturing Wad Madani for the army in early 2025.

Although many displaced people are now returning to Al-Jazeera, their relations with other ethnic groups and their confidence that the state will protect them have been severely damaged. The violence against the civilian population is also a consequence of the practice of outsourcing violence to militias and an exploitative state, which Sudan has known for decades.

Calls for international protection

At the international level, the brutal vio­lence against the civilian population in Sudan is a recurring theme of official bodies. Both the UN Security Council and the Peace and Security Council of the Afri­can Union (AU) took up the issue in 2024, but they were unable to take effective action. In June 2024, the UN Security Coun­cil passed a resolution that demanded that all warring parties protect the civilian population and that the RSF end its siege of El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. In October 2024, UN Secretary-General António Guterres presented a report on the protection of civilians in Sudan, but it contained hardly any measures that the UN Security Council could take itself. A draft resolution submitted by the United King­dom and Sierra Leone failed in November 2024 due to Russia’s veto; it would have instructed the Secretary-General to work with the warring parties to develop a mechanism to implement their previous voluntary commitments.

On 11 May 2023, shortly after the start of the war, the SAF and the RSF had already agreed on the Jeddah Declaration of Com­mitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan after mediation by the United States and Saudi Arabia. It lists in detail existing obli­gations arising from international humanitarian law and international human rights law. This declaration remains one of the few common reference documents on the protection of civilians in Sudan. However, it does not contain a mechanism to monitor compliance with these obligations, review incidents or penalise violations. The United States exerted considerable pressure on the warring parties in 2024 and steadily increased the sanctions on senior leaders, including RSF leader Dagalo and SAF leader Abdelfattah al-Burhan. This pressure appears to have temporarily reduced the number of RSF attacks on El-Fasher.

The European Union (EU) is working towards an agreement between the warring parties on the protection of civilian infra­structure. This should explicitly serve as a starting point for further talks. However, in view of the widespread attacks on markets, hospitals and power stations, no agreement has yet been reached.

The idea of a military or civil-military mission to protect the civilian population has attracted international attention. The US administration under Joe Biden fuelled the discussion about a mission led by Afri­can states or the AU – but the proposal was met with little enthusiasm from the latter. Representatives of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) spoke of a task force of up to 4,500 soldiers to monitor the implementation of the Jeddah Declaration. The UN Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan called for a protection mission, as did the then civilian Sudanese coalition Taqaddum, whose chairman, Abdallah Hamdok, also demanded a no-fly zone and security zones that would grad­ually expand.

However, these demands were strictly rejected by the parties to the conflict. Fur­thermore, practical problems were hardly discussed, such as how a large number of troops could be deployed to secure the most important combat zones and how such a mission could be financed. Even during the joint UN-AU mission in Darfur (UNAMID), which was withdrawn at the end of 2020, the security forces obstructed the mission’s active protection measures. Without the consent of the parties to the conflict and without a ceasefire, a new military mission in Sudan would effectively mean entering the war. So far, nobody seems willing to do this.

Local protection measures

At the local level, Sudanese actors are in­volved in protecting segments of the popula­tion. At the beginning of the war in particu­lar, there were a whole series of successful efforts to achieve local ceasefires, not least due to indications that the decisive battle would be fought in the centre and would not be decided in a provincial capital.

The best known – and longest lasting – efforts were those of the Elders and Media­tion Committee in El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state. High-ranking and com­mitted citizens of the town took the initia­tive on the third day of the war to at least ensure the proper and speedy burial of the bodies. They quickly agreed with the local representatives of the SAF and the RSF on a ceasefire and the deployment of police forces between their respective districts in the city. The committee monitored the ceasefire, clarified the movement of troops and handled any incidents. To do this, it was able to build on a long tradition of col­lective conflict management as well as its relationships and social capital with local commanders and the population. The gov­ernor of North Darfur supported the ini­tiative. A few months later, the committee also integrated representatives of armed groups from Darfur, whose leaders held gov­ernment positions (in a government controlled by the SAF) but were still mili­tarily neutral at the time.

Similar efforts were also made in other towns, for example in Ed-Daen, the capital of East Darfur – where merchants in par­ticular campaigned for peace in order to retain access to the market – or in An-Nuhud in West Kordofan. The UN Develop­ment Programme (UNDP) Sudan commissioned a study on these local peace efforts that has been made available to the author and will be published soon.

A central lesson of this revealing study is that, in Sudan, protection and peace efforts at the local level always originate from local social structures. These were often tradi­tional authorities and religious leaders, who sometimes worked together with lawyers, merchants and young activists. Humanitar­ian negotiations could often serve as a gate­way for further talks: Negotiations on medical access or the burial of war victims developed into a dialogue with the parties to the conflict, thereby improving the situa­tion of the civilian population as a whole. According to the study, this shows how important the peace aspect is in the triple nexus of humanitarian aid, development cooperation and peace-building. It was also essential for the local peace efforts to affect and include all of the relevant social groups on the ground, as long as this did not jeop­ardise their impartiality.

Nevertheless, each of the initiatives analysed also exhibited considerable weak­nesses, which are also known from other contexts (see below). Another finding from the study is that areas with a longer ex­perience of armed conflict were often better prepared to negotiate with marauding gangs and militias than the populations in those parts of the country that had been spared fighting for decades.

That said, protection should not be equated with peace measures. If there is no ceasefire, people take measures to protect themselves and those closest to them. The most important measure is to take flight. Sudan is currently experiencing the largest displacement crisis in the world. People are fleeing within the country (or to other countries) not only because of the immedi­ate war, but also because of the danger of attacks by the armed actors, hunger, and because food production and basic supplies have collapsed.

The population movements are of stra­tegic importance for the parties to the con­flict: If a warring party conquers an area and subsequently holds it, it makes a big difference to its legitimacy as to whether the civilian population flees, stays or even returns. Time and again, civilians had placed their hopes for protection in the army, which then retreated before the RSF captured a town.

Taking up arms themselves

Some people in Sudan do not want to run away, but to confront the danger to them­selves and their communities. They join the army, the RSF or one of the numerous militias, armed groups and self-defence units. Of course, widespread recruitment serves the strategic goals of the warring par­ties. There are often few other opportuni­ties for young men to earn money, espe­cially in areas where the economy has been severely damaged. There are also reports of forced recruitment and the use of minors. For some, however, the motivation to pro­tect themselves and others also plays a role.

According to a leaked internal report by the Sudanese Islamic Movement, more than 650,000 people were “mobilised” and more than 2,200 training camps were set up in the first year of the war alone. These figures refer to the areas under the control of the army.

Armed groups from Darfur have at times been involved in the protection of humanitarian supplies, refugee movements and segments of the civilian population. How­ever, as these armed groups came under increasing fire from the RSF, they ended their impartiality and declared their full support for the army in November 2023. In January 2025, the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA-AW) under Abdel Wahid al-Nur and the Gathering of Sudan Liberation Forces (GSLF) under Tahir Hajar founded a so-called neutral protection force, which was also intended to protect deliveries of civil­ian goods, but which in turn came under fire from the RSF. In addition, the GSLF’s alliance with the RSF from February 2025 called into question the impartiality of this protection force.

Humanitarian protection

Protection is a core task of humanitarian aid. Nevertheless, humanitarian actors do not necessarily agree as to what exactly constitutes humanitarian protection. The generally accepted definition of humanitarian protection, as established by the Inter-Agency Standing Committee, is not easy to grasp at first glance. Its core message is that humanitarian actors should ensure – at least in their own emergency relief work – that they protect vulnerable groups and respect the civilian status of the population.

At a local level in Sudan, networks of mutual aid – the Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) – also fulfil protection func­tions. The ERRs, of which there are hun­dreds throughout the country, are best known for their soup kitchens, which they use to ensure the food supply of neighbouring communities, primarily in areas that are rarely accessible to international actors. The ERRs are based on the Sudanese concept of nafeer, a traditional practice of mutual support in the community. The regular joint activities of people from different back­grounds contribute to social cohesion and thus defy the polarisation caused by the war to a certain extent.

However, the ERRs go even further. In Khartoum, for example, they maintain safe spaces for women and children and also offer psychosocial support for the many traumatised people. Finally, the ERRs’ pro­tection committees help those affected to move from high-risk areas to other parts of the country. To this end, they carry out their own risk assessments in order to prior­itise the evacuation of particularly vulner­able people. They also continually research which routes are currently safe and acces­sible. According to their own statements, the ERRs have helped around 200,000 people to relocate from the capital region alone since the start of the war.

Sudan has a nationwide structure for the coordination of mutual humanitarian aid, the Localisation Coordination Council. ERRs from 13 (out of a total of 18) federal states, 9 national NGOs and, as observers, 6 inter­national NGOs participate in the arrangement. For example, the Council helped vol­unteers in Al-Jazeera to set up ERRs and evacu­ate people after the state was cap­tured by the RSF.

International aid organisations, NGOs and the UN support the ERRs and can also improve the protection of vulnerable groups in Sudan through their own measures. The presence of international aid organisations in an area can, in principle, help to ensure the non-discriminatory distribution and or­ganisation of aid. However, the authorities in Port Sudan have not yet allowed the UN to maintain permanent bases in the areas controlled by the RSF in the west, which is why international aid organisations only come to these areas on a temporary basis. Their work is made more difficult by the significant bureaucratic, logistical, financial and security challenges. It can take weeks for lorries from the Chadian border or from Port Sudan to arrive in parts of Darfur. The first UN convoy from Port Sudan to El-Fasher in a year was bombed near Al-Koma in June 2025, killing five humanitarian workers.

In August 2024, high-level UN humanitarian diplomacy succeeded in reopening the border crossing to Chad in Adré, which has remained open ever since. However, the bureaucratic obstacles of the Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) on the SAF side and the Sudan Agency for Relief and Humanitarian Operations (SARHO) on the RSF side are massively hampering the work of inter­national aid organisations. On the ground, armed militias are making money from every vehicle passing through the numer­ous checkpoints.

In areas where aid organisations have been active for some time, they can support local protection networks, many of which were set up before the war. For example, there were protection committees in all of Darfur’s federal states that brought together both civilian and local security authorities with representatives of the civilian popu­lation. However, even then the security forces did not always take part in meetings or showed no interest in reaching agreements. Some networks for the protection of women or for resolving tensions between farmers and herders are anchored locally and continue to function.

Finally, access to telecommunication ser­vices is important so that people can inform themselves and exchange information in order to make their own decisions about their protection. In the areas controlled by the RSF, there is no mobile phone network available because the authorities in Port Sudan have banned Sudanese mobile phone companies from operating there. Instead, people use smuggled Starlink terminals, access to which is expensive and usually controlled by the RSF or people close to them. The collapse of the electricity supply, the lack of availability of cash and the high cost of living make mobile communications difficult everywhere in Sudan, not to men­tion the damage to the telecommunications infrastructure caused by the war, not least in the Khartoum area.

Risks of and experiences with protective measures

Many political demands for the protection of the civilian population frequently refer to the idea of protection zones that are either protected or monitored by different mechanisms: by an international mission (civilian or military), through agreements with the conflict parties, the presence of hu­manitarian actors, or through remote moni­toring with satellites and other methods. According to one proposal, humanitarian partners should offer assistance in these zones and local administrations should ensure basic supplies.

Experiences with local ceasefires such as in El-Fasher show the enormous difficulties of such an approach. All local ceasefires collapsed sooner or later. Even when there were agreements with the local commanders of the conflict parties, the respective leadership groups at the national level in­sisted on military operations. Conversely, the conflict parties’ lack of an effective command and control structure makes local agreements more difficult. Although such agreements can reduce violence in one region, this then allows the parties to the conflict to intensify their offensives else­where. For example, when the RSF advanced into the state of Sennar, the violence in the previously occupied state of Al-Jazeera decreased because the troops were preoccu­pied with the offensive in the neighbouring state.

The concentration of the civilian population in protected zones that are supposedly safe places – where they may also have better access to humanitarian aid – can also benefit the strategies of the parties to the conflict: whether it is to drive out seg­ments of the population or to bring them under their own control, and thus increase their own legitimacy. If attacks do occur – such as in Wad Madani in December 2023, when hundreds of thousands fled from Khar­toum, or in El-Fasher in May 2024 – dis­placed people are particularly at risk because they have few resources of their own and lack local connections. Explicitly declaring protection zones should therefore go hand in hand with a comprehensive local conflict analysis.

Entry points for international actors

As long as the war continues, all efforts to protect civilians in Sudan will have limi­tations. Nevertheless, there are certainly opportunities to strengthen civilian protec­tion measures from the outside without a ceasefire. Given the divisions between the conflict actors and the polarised society, a ceasefire could even lead to its own wave of mass atrocities if it is not accompanied by such preventive measures.

Sudanese actors themselves have identified a need for support that includes fur­ther capacity-building and training for local mediators as well as financial support for ERRs. UNDP could expand existing regional mediation networks and create a national coordination platform, as recommended by the study that it commissioned. Inter­national support for the establishment of local monitoring and verification mechanisms for local agreements, including in the form of digital platforms, is crucial. The ERRs, with their local networks, have sig­nificant experience and are offering to become cooperation partners.

Sudanese media platforms need support and can help to combat disinformation and discriminatory language. UN member states can also assist national human rights orga­nisations and continue to support the UN Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan.

NGOs also make an important contribution and need international support. For example, Geneva Call organises training and workshops with armed actors in Sudan. Nonviolent Peaceforce still has a team in Sudan that supports the civilian population in negotiating with the warring parties on issues of daily survival, and it helps with early warnings about renewed attacks and possible displacement.

The German government should make a strong case to the conflict parties and ensure that international aid organisations have unrestricted access and can be per­manently situated throughout the country, including in areas controlled by the RSF. In addition, humanitarian aid should be more decentralised.

The German government should publicly and explicitly denounce particularly brutal attacks on the civilian population, such as during the takeover of the Zam-Zam camp for displaced persons by the RSF and the bombing of markets by the SAF. The EU should impose further sanctions against both the Sudanese perpetrators of these human rights violations and their international supporters. Reports of foreign mercenaries travelling to Sudan via European airports such as Paris and Madrid, and Emirati com­panies bringing these mercenaries to Sudan via Libya together with weapons – includ­ing European-made arms – demonstrate the need for action.

Despite the deadlock in the conflict, there are numerous starting points for Germany and its European partners to contribute to the protection of the civilian population in Sudan.

Dr Gerrit Kurtz is an Associate in the Africa and Middle East Research Division at SWP. He would like to thank all interviewees in Nairobi, Kampala and online (also in Sudan) as well as Wibke Hansen and Judith Vorrath for their helpful comments.

Photo: Mutual aid kitchen in Khartoum, June 2025. Published by Khartoum Aid Kitchen on X

Das Versagen der internationalen Gemeinschaft in Sudan

Zitate in: Watson, 9.7.2025

Symbol globaler Ohnmacht: das Versagen des Sicherheitsrats

Der Sudan-Experte Gerrit Kurtz von der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) zeichnet ebenfalls ein düsteres Bild. Der UN-Sicherheitsrat, eigentlich für den internationalen Frieden zuständig, spiele bei diesem Krieg seit Langem “nur eine untergeordnete Rolle”.

Ein Resolutionsentwurf, der zumindest den Schutz der Zivilbevölkerung verbessern sollte, wurde 2024 von Russland blockiert – offenbar aus geopolitischem Kalkül: um westlichen Einfluss in der Region zu schwächen und die eigene Rolle als Schutzmacht einzelner Konfliktparteien zu wahren.

Sanktionen, Friedensmissionen und Mediationen sind alles Instrumente, die früher bei ähnlichen Konflikten auf UN-Ebene genutzt wurden. Heute seien sie kaum noch verfügbar. “Das ist Ausdruck einer massiven Krise multilateraler Konfliktbearbeitung”, sagt Kurtz gegenüber watson.

Viele der Staaten, die heute entscheidend Einfluss nehmen könnten, hätten andere Interessen: strategische Allianzen, Rohstoffe, Migration etwa. Die Rettung der sudanesischen Bevölkerung hat keine Priorität.

Lokaler Widerstand im Sudan: Die Hoffnung kommt von innen

Und doch gibt es sie: Orte der Hoffnung, die jedoch weitgehend von der sudanesischen Zivilgesellschaft selbst getragen werden. Immer wieder gelingt es Aktivist:innen laut Kurtz, lokale Waffenstillstände auszuhandeln, Evakuierungen zu organisieren oder Schutzräume für besonders gefährdete Gruppen einzurichten.

Diese Initiativen sind nicht nur mutig, sondern oft effektiver als die Handlungen offizieller internationaler Institutionen. Dem Experten zufolge ließen sich solche lokalen Strukturen mit gezielter internationaler Unterstützung ausbauen und stärken, auch ohne formalen Waffenstillstand. “Gleichzeitig muss klar sein, dass nur ein effektives Ende des Krieges wirklich nachhaltigen Schutz bieten kann”, sagt er.

Eine internationale Militärmission hingegen sei derzeit nicht realistisch. Es brauche vielmehr gezielten diplomatischen Druck, gezielte Finanzierung lokaler Partner und endlich eine handlungsfähige internationale Kontaktgruppe.

Ein solches Format war zuletzt im April 2025 bei einer Konferenz in London diskutiert worden. Doch die Gründung scheiterte – ausgerechnet an der Afrikanischen Union (AU), die zwar Vermittlungsformate etabliert hat, jedoch als ineffektiv gilt.

Ihre internen Widersprüche, mangelnde Ressourcen und die seit 2021 bestehende Suspendierung des Sudan aus der AU machen sie zu einem zahnlosen Akteur in einem blutigen Spiel.

Dass der Krieg im Sudan kein medialer Dauerbrenner ist, liegt nicht an mangelnder Kenntnis. “Die größte humanitäre Krise, die jemals gemessen wurde, ist kein ‘blinder Fleck’ der Weltpolitik”, sagt Kurtz. “Alle relevanten Regierungen wissen, was im Sudan geschieht, und tun dennoch nicht genug – wenn sie nicht sogar dazu beitragen, ihn anzuheizen.”

Kurtz warnt, dass internationale Normen “allenthalben von den mächtigsten Staaten der Welt ignoriert” würden: Der Trump-Regierung sei es beispielsweise augenscheinlich wichtiger, Migrant:innen “in Drittstaaten zu deportieren oder Rohstoffe zu extrahieren als sich um echte Diplomatie zu kümmern”. Weiter sagt Kurtz:

“Für andere, wie die Bundesregierung, sind die bilateralen Beziehungen zu einflussreichen Staaten wie den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten oder Ägypten offensichtlich deutlich wichtiger als deren Einfluss in Sudan einzudämmen.”

“Das Korridorprojekt ist ein gewaltsames Modernisierungsprogramm der Städte zugunsten der Elite um Abiy Ahmed”

Zitate beim Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, 2.Juli 2025

„Das Korridorprojekt ist ein gewaltsames Modernisierungsprogramm der Städte zugunsten der Elite um Abiy Ahmed (Äthiopiens Ministerpräsident, Anm. d. Red.) und zugunsten der Unternehmen, die mit ihnen zusammenhängen“, sagt Gerrit Kurtz, Ostafrika-Forscher der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik. „Das Projekt geht zulasten insbesondere der armen Menschen, die vertrieben werden.“ Zwar seien manche Umzüge freiwillig erfolgt und manche der neuen Wohneinheiten besser, aber Anspruch hat nur, wer legal gelebt und gearbeitet hat. Und das sind die wenigsten.

..

Dass Arme keine große politische Lobby in Äthiopien haben, ist nicht neu. Im Fall des Korridorprojekts erfuhren viele erst kurz vor der Räumung überhaupt davon, was dort entstehen soll, wo sie wohnen. „Bisher waren Vertreibungen häufig im ländlichen Raum, nach Dürren oder in von Konflikten betroffenen Gebieten“, sagt Kurtz. „Aber jetzt geht es um die Umgestaltung der Zivilgesellschaft und den sozialen Zusammenhalt.“

Äthiopien ist auf dem Weg zum Polizeistaat

Für Leute, die umziehen müssen, bricht das gesamte soziale Netzwerk und die Existenzgrundlage weg. „Informelle Netzwerke sind gerade da wichtig, wo es keine ausreichenden sozialstaatlichen Umgebungen gibt“, sagt Kurtz. Man hilft sich, man kümmert sich, wenn einer krank wird, arbeitslos wird, wenn ein Kind geboren wird.

„Bei Initiativen von Abiy hat man häufiger das Gefühl, dass da schon etwas Gutes dabei ist, aber dass es eben nicht gut gemacht ist, den falschen Zwecken dient und zu mehr Problemen führt“, sagt Kurtz. Kritiker monieren etwa, dass das Projekt so schnell umgesetzt wird – während 28 Millionen Äthiopier, die dauerhaft auf humanitäre Hilfe angewiesen sind, auf Handlungen der Regierung warten.

„Rückblickend gesehen“, sagt Gerrit Kurtz, „hat ihn der Friedensnobelpreis ermutigt, entschlossener gegen seine Feinde oder Gegner vorzugehen und war damit eher kontraproduktiv. Abiy Ahmed ist keine Friedensfigur, er ist eine komplexe Figur.“ Selbst für Experten ist der Politiker kaum durchschaubar, unklar, was ihn antreibt. Mal verbündet er sich mit der einen, mal mit der anderen Gruppe. Und hat gleichzeitig doch große Visionen für sein Land.

„Es ist ein zentrales Problem, dass die Entscheidungsfindung so auf das Büro des Premierministers zentralisiert wurde“, erklärt Kurtz, „das Regierungshandeln hat somit an interner Rechenschaft eingebüßt“. Bedeutet: Abiy Ahmed und seine Verbündeten können machen, was sie wollen. Es gibt kaum Gegenwind. Und wenn doch, kommt es zu Verhaftungen. „Äthiopien“, sagt Gerrit Kurtz, „ist eben keine Demokratie.“

Rethinking Transitional Justice in Sudan

Drawing Lessons From the Transition Process and Finding an End to the War

Published in Verfassungsblog, 26 June 2025

The war that has plagued Sudan since 15 April 2023 is accompanied by massive violations and abuses of international humanitarian law and international human rights law. Sudanese returning to their homes in Khartoum, which was recaptured by the army in late March, often find graves and decomposing bodies. The UN Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan, meanwhile, recently reported “a sharp rise in sexual and gender-based violence.” The Biden administration in the United States even formally determined that war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide had taken place, a rare step. Sudan is no stranger to mass atrocities, as violence against civilians, including sexual violence and identity-based attacks on ethnic groups, have marked previous wars as well. Hardly any of the major perpetrators have faced justice.

Addressing this accumulated injustice has proven to be one of the most important stumbling blocs for previous peace and transition processes in Sudan and also remains a key obstacle now. Impunity with the persistence, and indeed rise, of alleged perpetrators is a key dimension of the current war. Many in Sudan associate transitional justice primarily with criminal justice instead of also addressing structural dimensions of atrocities. This has created uncertainty, resentment, and fear among armed actors as well as survivors.

A culture of impunity fueling conflict

Sudan has been plagued by conflict and violence against civilians for decades. For that reason, justice was a key demand of the protestors that helped topple President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, after thirty years in power. The constitutional declaration that the military and a coalition of political parties, professional associations, and civil society signed in August 2019 to create a civil-military transitional government included a commitment to transitional justice, as had earlier peace agreements that had addressed previous conflicts. Little was ever implemented, though.

The culture of impunity, the lack of reparations for harm, left out institutional reforms, failed investigations, and missing public consensus about the country’s past as part of its national identity created grounds for conflict and the return of authoritarianism. Those responsible for violence against civilians not only remained in power, but benefited and prospered. Instead of gradually reducing the power and influence of the security sector, the 2019-2021 transition process ended up entrenching them even further.

This is particularly the case for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. The RSF emerged out of Arab militias locally known as Janjaweed, which were responsible for mass violence in Darfur in the early 2000s. Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s then President, used the RSF for border protection, counterinsurgency, mercenary services in Yemen, and regime security. Hemedti made himself into a key powerbroker when he joined the intelligence service and the Sudanese Armed Forces to replace Bashir in the face of sustained mass protests in April 2019. His forces likely led a subsequent attack on the main protest camp outside the military headquarters on 3 June 2019 that killed more than 120 people. Still, Hemedti became an influential member of the civil-military Sovereign Council (the transitional collective presidency), styling himself as its deputy chairman and de-facto vice president. In the following years, the RSF grew massively in military strength, with the help of the army and international partners like Russia (Wagner) and the UAE, as well as in economic influence. The RSF’s rivalry with the SAF increased notably after the coup in October 2021, with the army itself staffed by senior officers involved in past atrocities as well. The rivalry between the two armies culminated in the outbreak of open hostilities in the morning hours of Saturday 15 April 2023.

Lessons from Sudan’s transition process

Sudan’s most recent transition process underlines how transitional justice can fail – and what future efforts must learn. The civilian component of the transitional government took a top-down approach to transitional justice, with victim and survivor groups feeling insufficiently consulted. A key element was the so-called dismantling committee, which investigated the shadow system, assets and staff associated with the former regime, leading to the dismissal of thousands of public officials. They operated without sufficient regard to due process, however. The United Nations Independent Expert on the situation of human rights in the Sudan warned that the Committee’s decisions “might degenerate into political purges”, as it had the right to dismiss all public employees based on their mere association with the former regime. The UN human rights office worked with the transitional authorities to improve the situation, but these concerns were not sufficiently addressed before the coup.

Furthermore, transitional justice became part of the bargaining process between armed groups and the security forces during the negotiations that led to the Juba Peace Agreement, signed in October 2020. The agreement includes a detailed chapter on “justice, accountability and reconciliation”, including a timeline of 60 days to establish a truth and reconciliation committee and 90 days to establish a special court for Darfur. None of those were ever established. Instead, representatives of the armed movements joined the government in Khartoum, brought back troops to Sudan and engaged in major recruitment drives in Darfur, incentivized by the promise of demobilization packages in the peace agreement.

The security institutions remained highly skeptical of transitional justice, increasing their motivation to remove the civilian component from the government. After the coup, they overturned many decisions by the dismantling committee. Investigations into the violent dispersal of the protest camp in June 2019 stopped.

When it came to a core demand of the revolutionary protest movement of December 2018, the transition not only delivered little in the way of justice but also created resentments and disappointments in many quarters. It failed to engage with the structural causes of Sudan’s atrocities and repression, ultimately contributing to the situation that led to a devastating war – one that has laid waste to the country’s institutions, livelihoods, and social fabric.

Dealing with power structures

Getting the full spectrum of measures that transitional justice entails right is therefore essential for any future political and peace process. Crucially, anyone engaging in transitional justice needs to acknowledge from the get-go that a transitional justice process reflects the prevailing power structures and is therefore inherently political.

This is an uneasy discussion. Given the previous experience of impunity, delayed implementation, and power-seeking elites, some associate transitional justice in Sudan with a so-called “soft landing” approach: perpetrators as well as benefactors of past crimes get to go scot-free if they make some superficial commitments to peace and human rights. As a result, they receive the legitimacy to either remain in positions of power or join the dominant kleptocratic system for their own benefit.

Acknowledging existing power structures does not mean accepting them. Rather, civilian actors (and those foreign governments wishing to support them) should anticipate and prepare for dealing with armed and authoritarian forces with their eyes open. Simply calling for justice, truth, reparations and comprehensive institutional reforms does not suffice, as important as a principled stance is.

This insight has guided recent efforts to rethink transitional justice in Sudan. In a series of workshops organized jointly by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation and the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Kampala and Addis Ababa between February2024 and May 2025, Sudanese and international leading experts on transitional justice and peace came together to consider some of the challenges, trade-offs and possibilities how transitional justice could contribute to ending the war, and to sustaining peace.

Balancing peace and justice demands in Sudan

One of the challenges of transitional justice globally has been that despite frequent commitments to be context-specific, victim-centered and nationally owned, it can be excessively driven by outside actors. This is particularly prevalent in cases where representatives of an ancien régime (like that of Bashir) or those responsible for atrocities during war time retain significant power, not least because most wars end through a negotiated agreement between warring parties, e.g. in Ethiopia and in South Sudan. In such contexts, in trying to reduce the sensitivity of the subject, transitional justice is often reduced to a technical exercise of consultations, legislation, institutions, and processes. Even in situations where, for example, a truth commission has been able to work – such as in Kenya –, the impact remains very limited. International criminal proceedings may be possible, for example at the International Criminal Court, specialized tribunals or in national courts based on universal jurisdiction, yet they remain distant from the communities and survivors involved.

In a situation of active hostilities as in Sudan, balancing the concurrent demands of peace and justice is key. This has been a lesson that one of the members of the expert group, Rifaat Makkawi, mentioned in a podcast of the INSAF campaign for transitional justice. “Our views shifted”, he said. “We used to believe that justice comes first.” Experiencing the devastation of the war firsthand, the campaign now seeks “a balance between justice and peace.”

The key here is that such a balance means aligning peace and justice as much as possible, not just seeking an immediate target instead of a seemingly more long-term one. Makkawi and Amal Hamdan, another member of the expert group, tackled one of the most controversial subjects in this area: amnesty. In a joint paper, they call for shaping conditional amnesty provisions in such a way that they facilitate peace while not precluding prosecutions, for example through a hybrid court with national and international elements. Conditional amnesty would be a novel instrument in Sudanese conflicts, as previous peace processes have always resulted in either explicit or de facto blanket amnesty due to lack of implementation.

The role of civil society

Furthermore, transitional justice is about much more than criminal trials. It also needs to speak to a sense of everyday peace and justice that helps not just elites but whole communities to co-exist. Reconciliation, an often-cited goal of transitional justice, seems almost far-fetched in the face of mass atrocities. Changing out leaders responsible for such crimes is important, as is transforming the relationship between state institutions and civilian populations.

Sudan has an extraordinarily active civil society. In many parts of the country, mutual aid networks provide basic services in areas that international aid organisations often do not reach. Women, youth and other civilian initiatives discuss ways with political and military leaders to halt violence and end the war. Even if the war’s polarization and displacement affect them deeply just like everyone else, they can still play important roles in transitional justice, and often already do. These roles include the documentation of violations, combating hate speech, trainings, rehabilitation, peace messaging, psychosocial as well as material support to victims and survivors, in addition to advocacy. They do not need to wait for the warring parties, donors, or international organisations to include them to make a difference.

Moving forward, seeking possibilities as well as creative entry points remain essential. Sudan’s war is a fundamental challenge to its social fabric, state integrity and regional stability. Ending the war and overcoming violence requires a combination of principles and innovation.

Note: The author co-organized the expert group on transitional justice and peace in Sudan with a workshop series on which parts of this analysis are based, a project in collaboration with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation.

Rethinking Mediation in Sudan

Contribution to “Ask the Experts”, Global Public Policy Institute, 27 June 2025

Any Leadership Welcome 

Gerrit Kurtz

Whether it be Saudi Arabia, the United States, Egypt, the African Union, the United Nations, IGAD, Türkiye, or Qatar – many countries and international organizations have been involved in mediation efforts in Sudan or have been suggested as potential mediators. The results: competition, forum-shopping, and ever more violence. Every mediator has weaknesses, be it their influence on, or bias toward one of the conflict parties, their lackluster approach, distraction, or lack of capacity. Ultimately, international actors (or, it seems, the Sudanese) have little influence on who will lead a peace process.

At the moment, no one party is really leading anything when it comes to Sudan. There has been a dearth of effective initiatives following frustration over the parties’ lack of commitment, the new government in the US and the battlefield advances of the Sudanese Armed Forces culminating in the recapture of central Khartoum in late March. Given the scale of the immense suffering in Sudan and the increasing regionalization of the conflict, this lack of leadership is an indictment of our current international order.

What Sudan needs in order to stop this madness is more coherent and effective international leadership. Everyone, including those in Europe, should be asking themselves what they can bring to the table and how they can contribute to shaping the mediation process. Effective mediation leadership would entail maintaining communication channels to the various parts of the armed coalitions, while being in continuous exchange with other diplomats about any openings and leads they may encounter. 

Increasing the cost (to meddle) for external sponsors can be just as essential as supporting civilian political organizing, ensuring humanitarian access, enabling mutual aid networks or establishing the documenting of human rights abuses.

No comprehensive and inclusive process is likely to emerge in the foreseeable future. In the meantime, virtually any leadership that will help stop this catastrophe is welcome to apply.

Wie die Drohnenangriffe den Krieg in Sudan verändern

Die neue Fähigkeit der RSF, Ziele in ganz Sudan zu treffen, verändert die Dynamik des Kriegs aufs Neue. Ob sich daraus ein strategisches Patt ergibt, das Verhandlungen begünstigen könnte, hängt jedoch auch maßgeblich von den externen Unterstützern der Kriegsparteien ab.

Erschienen in Zenith, 26.05.2025

An einem frühen Sonntagmorgen begannen die Angriffe aus der Luft auf Port Sudan. Die Hafenstadt am Roten Meer, Anfang des 20. Jahrhunderts von den britischen Kolonialherrschern in der Nähe einer alten osmanischen Siedlung für den Sues-Verkehr errichtet, galt bis zum 4. Mai 2025 als sicher.

Der Kampf in Sudan hatte gut zwei Jahre vorher im Zentrum von Militär, Politik und Wirtschaft in der Hauptstadt Khartum begonnen und sich auf weite Teile des Landes ausgebreitet – der Norden und Osten blieben bis auf wenige Ausnahmen sowie den Druck durch die Aufnahme vieler Vertriebener verschont. Die Ministerien und das herrschende Militär zogen nach Port Sudan um, da Khartum zur Kriegszone wurde. Auch internationale Hilfsorganisationen richteten Büros dort ein und landeten Personal und Güter an den einzigen internationalen See- und Flughäfen des Landes an.

Am 4. Mai stand eine massive Rauchwolke über dem militärischen Teil des etwas vom Stadtzentrum entfernten Flughafens, ein Munitionsdepot hatte sich in eine Feuerwolke verwandelt. Der Luftaum wurde gesperrt. In den nächsten Tagen trafen weitere Drohnen auch den Hafen, ein Treibstofflager, ein Kraftwerk, ein Radar, eine Marinebasis, ein Hotel in der Nähe des Militärhauptquartiers, und weitere offensichtlich sorgfältig ausgewählte Ziele. Es dauerte fünf Tage, bis das Feuer in dem Treibstofflager gelöscht war.

Erhebliche Beeinträchtigungen zu erwarten

Bewaffnete Drohnen sind keine neue Waffe im Sudan-Krieg. Sowohl die Sudanesischen Streitkräfte (SAF) als auch die Rapid Support Forces (RSF) setzen sie ein, und zwar kleine wie größere, fortgeschrittenere Modelle. Die RSF hatten in den vergangenen Monaten immer wieder militärische und zivile Infrastruktur weit hinter den Frontlinien getroffen, beispielsweise in Atbara oder Meroe. Diese Ziele liegen jedoch gerade einmal auf der Hälfte der fast 700 Kilometer langen Strecke zwischen der nächsten bekannten Position der RSF in Omdurman und Port Sudan. Kamikazedrohnen und Drohnen der Klasse »Medium Altitude Long Endurance« (MALE), über die die RSF verfügen, können noch erheblich weiter fliegen – doch sie so präzise, weit entfernt und zuvor unbemerkt zum Ziel zu bringen, war der RSF vorher nicht möglich gewesen. Zum Vergleich: Die Armee setzt zwar deutlich mehr Drohnen als die RSF ein, aber nur in Zentralsudan; für Angriffe in Darfur und Kordofan nutzt sie ihre – weitaus weniger präzise – Luftwaffe.

Dabei ist weiterhin unklar, von wo aus die Drohnen gestartet sind, um Port Sudan anzugreifen. Die Vertreter der Armee behaupten, die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate hätten die Drohnen von »Basen am Roten Meer« abgefeuert. In Expertenkreisen werden eher Orte im Westen Sudans, die von den RSF kontrolliert werden, diskutiert. Allein: Stichhaltige Belege für den geografischen Ursprung der Angriffe, die seit mehreren Wochen Port Sudan erreichen, gibt es nicht. Die RSF selbst haben auch kein offizielles Statement veröffentlicht, im Gegensatz zu ihren zahlreichen Propagandavideos und Statements von ihren Einheiten und Beratern über ihren Bodenkrieg. So deutet einiges auf eine mutmaßlich erhebliche Rolle eines externen Akteurs bei diesen Angriffen hin.

Ihre psychologische Wirkung verfehlten die Angriffe jedoch nicht. Sie verbreiteten Schrecken und Unsicherheit, in der Bevölkerung, aber auch beim sudanesischen Militär. Noch Ende März war Militärführer Abdelfattah Al-Burhan das erste Mal seit Kriegsbeginn mit dem Hubschrauber auf dem weitgehend zerstörten Flughafen von Khartum gelandet und hatte seinen Soldaten persönlich gratuliert, nachdem sie den Präsidentenpalast im Zentrum Khartums zurückerobert hatten. Einige Beobachter mag die Inszenierung an die berühmte Landung des damaligen US-Präsidenten George W. Bush auf dem Flugzeugträger USS Abraham Lincoln im Mai 2003 erinnert haben, um eine »mission accomplished« im Irak zu verkünden.

Daneben beeinträchtigen die Drohnenangriffe Port Sudan auch materiell. Treibstoffpreise schnellten in die Höhe, die Stromversorgung wurde noch unzuverlässiger, Trinkwasser war Mangelware. Die Versorgung mit kommerziellen, humanitären und militärischen Gütern über den Seehafen und den Flughafen ist möglicherweise gefährdet. Entsprechend warnte auch die höchste UN-Repräsentantin in Sudan, Clementine Nkweta-Salami, dass die Angriffe auf zivile Infrastruktur in Port Sudan und anderen Teilen des Landes die logistischen Schwierigkeiten der Hilfsorganisationen weiter erschwerten.

Ein mögliches strategisches Patt

Die offensichtliche Fähigkeit der RSF, Ziele ganz im Osten Sudans zu treffen, könnte die strategische Aussicht des Krieges verändern. Nach der Rückeroberung Khartums plante die Armee, die militärischen Auseinandersetzungen in den Westen des Landes zu verlegen und dort die RSF in die Enge zu treiben. Tatsächlich ist es weiterhin unwahrscheinlich, dass es den RSF gelingen könnte, erneut Gelände in der Hauptstadtregion oder insgesamt auf der östlichen Seite des Nil zu erobern.

Dazu müssten sie wahrscheinlich deutlich besser in der Lage sein, ihre unterschiedlichen Verbände und militärischen Fähigkeiten – einschließlich aus der Luft – integriert und abgestimmt einzusetzen. Solange sie ihre Schlagkraft durch Drohnen (mit der entsprechenden externen Unterstützung) aufrechterhalten können, können die RSF jedoch die Armee nun stark unter Druck setzen, selbst wenn sie in Kordofan oder Darfur Boden verlieren sollten.

Theoretisch könnte sich aus diesem strategischen Patt also ein Fenster für Verhandlungen ergeben. Beide Seiten können ihren Willen auf absehbare Zeit nicht militärisch umsetzen, und die Weiterführung des Krieges erzeugt für sie erhebliche Risiken und Kosten.

Die Geister, die sie riefen

Die Aussichten auf belastbare Gespräche, um den Krieg zu beenden, sind bisher allerdings weiterhin getrübt. Multilaterale Organisationen wie die Vereinten Nationen, die Afrikanische Union (AU) oder die »Zwischenstaatliche Behörde für Entwicklung« (IGAD), die weiterhin den Anspruch vertreten, sich für Mediation einzusetzen, sind geschwächt und gespalten. Trotz entgegenlautender Versprechen arbeiten sie oft in Konkurrenz zueinander. Neben den Aktivitäten der jeweiligen Sekretariate liegt deren Schwäche in den widerstreitenden Interessen einflussreicher Mitgliedstaaten begründet, also Russland, den USA und Großbritannien im UN-Sicherheitsrat, oder Ägypten, Kenia und Äthiopien in der AU beziehungsweise IGAD.

Hinzu kommt, dass Zweiparteiengespräche zwischen SAF und RSF eine erhebliche Belastung für die Kohärenz ihrer jeweiligen Koalitionen sein könnten. Die Bündnisse der RSF mit der Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) sowie einigen Milizen und Politikern aus Darfur sowie der SAF mit anderen bewaffneten Gruppen aus Darfur um Mini Minawi und Geibril Ibrahim sind transaktionaler Natur. Ein Abkommen, das beispielsweise den RSF weite Teile des Westens, die sie bislang kontrollieren, zuschlüge, würde vermutlich auf erheblichen Widerstand bei Minawi, dem Gouverneur von Darfur und Führer der »Sudan Liberation Army« (SLA), und weiteren Bewegungen treffen.

Anders könnten sich die Dinge verhalten, wenn sich die wichtigsten externen Unterstützer der sudanesischen Kriegsparteien verständigen sollten, darunter die VAE, Ägypten, Saudi-Arabien, Katar und die Türkei. Allerdings spüren diese Mächte die Auswirkungen des Kriegs in sehr unterschiedlichem Maße – über eine Million Geflüchtete sind aus Sudan nach Ägypten gekommen, Port Sudan liegt auf der anderen Seite des Roten Meers, gegenüber der saudischen Hafenstadt Dschidda. Umgekehrt ist Abu Dhabi das Ziel von Goldexporten sowohl aus Gebieten der RSF als auch der Armee. Und das Vertrauen in einen möglichen Ausgleich von Interessen ist gering. So geht der Krieg in Sudan in die nächste Runde.

Sudan: Konflikt auf wichtige Hafenstadt übergegriffen

Interview in SRF Radio, 7.Mai 2025

Im Sudan tobt seit zwei Jahren ein Bürgerkrieg. Nun greifen die Rebellen die wichtigste Hafenstadt an: Port Sudan ist das Herz der sudanesischen Wirtschaft und Standort der internationalen Hilfsorganisationen. Das Gespräch mit Gerrit Kurtz von der Stiftung für Wissenschaft und Politik.

Quelle des Photos hier.

Trotz des Erfolges der Armee ist ein Ende der Kämpfe nicht in Sicht

Zitate in den Salzburger Nachrichten, 16. April 2025

Ukraine, Israel, Gaza und die US-Regierung: Für den Sudan ist häufig kein Platz in den Schlagzeilen. Dabei sind dort mehr Menschen auf der Flucht, als Österreich Einwohner hat.

Gudrun Doringer Salzburg, Khartum. Die Konkurrenz der Krisen sei verantwortlich dafür, dass die Katastrophe im Sudan zur Kurzmeldung verkomme, sagt Gerrit Kurtz. Er ist Sudan-Experte bei der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik. Für ihn ist sie mehr als das. Er beschäftigt sich tagein, tagaus eben mit dem Krieg im Sudan, der nun ins dritte Jahr geht.

(…)

Warum wird überhaupt gekämpft in dem ostafrikanischen Land? Es ist der Machtkampf zweier Generäle, die einst verbündet waren. Gerrit Kurtz erklärt: „Abdel Fattah al-Burhan befehligt das Militär im Land. Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, bekannt als Hemeti, ist Chef der Rapid Support Forces, kurz RSF – eine Konkurrenzsicherheitskraft. Die RSF war unter dem früheren Herrscher Baschir aufgebaut worden, um sich vor Putschen zu schützen.“ Baschir war selbst unter einem solchen Putsch an die Macht gekommen. „Daher hat er Paramilitärs gefördert, um eine Konkurrenz herzustellen“, sagt Kurtz. „Die haben auch Aufstände [bekämpft] und Grenzen gesichert, aber sie waren von Anfang an als Konkurrenz angelegt. Als Baschir weg war, haben die beiden Kräfte erst einmal zusammengearbeitet, weil sie den Gegner in der zivilen Demokratiebewegung gesehen haben, mit der sie auch gut zwei Jahre lang mehr schlecht als recht zusammen regiert haben. Als sie dann geputscht haben im Oktober 2021, beide zusammen, da war der zivile Gegner in der Regierung nicht mehr da. Das Verhältnis zwischen diesen beiden Sicherheitskräften musste geklärt werden: Wer ist die Nummer eins?“ Zu einer Einigung kam es nicht. Daran entzündete sich im April 2023 der Kriegsausbruch.

(…)

Trotz des Erfolges der Armee ist ein Ende der Kämpfe nicht in Sicht. „Beide Seiten erhalten weiterhin reichlich Unterstützung von außen, um ihre Kämpfe fortzusetzen“, sagt Gerrit Kurtz. „Die RSF von den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten. Die Armee durch militärische Zusammenarbeit mit Ägypten, mit dem Iran, mit Russland und mit der Türkei.“ Für die Bevölkerung sind die Auswirkungen fatal. Hunger wird als Waffe eingesetzt. Sexuelle Gewalt ebenso. „Es ist ein Krieg, der die Körper von Frauen und Kindern als Kriegsstrategie benutzt“, sagt Hala al-Karib, Sudan-Direktorin der Frauenrechtsorganisation Siha.

(…)

Hätte das Grauen ein Ende – was würde der Sieg einer der beiden Kriegsparteien für das verwundete Land bedeuten?

Der Sudan sei die meiste Zeit seit seiner Unabhängigkeit vom Vereinigten Königreich von Militärregierungen regiert worden, sagt Kurtz. „Wenn also die Armee die Regierungsgewalt zurückerobern würde, dann wüssten wir, wie das aussieht: harte autoritäre Repression. In den Gebieten, die sie gerade zurückerobert haben, hören wir von Erschießungen der Leute, denen sie vorwerfen, sie hätten mit den RSF zusammengearbeitet.“ Kurtz erwähnt auch die Angehörigen des früheren islamistischen Regimes von Umar al-Baschir, die auch jetzt militärisch eine große Rolle für die Armee spielen. Sie könnten im Fall eines Armeesieges zurückkommen. „Davor haben viele Angst. Einige Menschen sehen die Armee dennoch als kleineres Übel. Die RSF wird mittlerweile zusammengehalten von einem Freibrief zu Plünderung und Rache. Wir sehen Massaker an der Zivilbevölkerung. Das ist Gewalt, die wir auf diese Weise von der Armee nicht sehen.“

Eine einberufene Konferenz am Dienstag in London sagte dem Sudan 660 Millionen Euro Hilfsgelder zu. „Die Konferenz ist der Versuch, ein Thema aufs Tapet zu heben, das sonst nicht vorkommt, weil es auch europäische Politiker nicht hoch hängen“, sagt Gerrit Kurtz. „Es birgt Frustpotenzial, weil es an Einflussmöglichkeiten mangelt.“ Für die Menschen im Sudan bedeutet der Beginn des dritten Kriegsjahres Aufmerksamkeit – für einen Tag.

Mediation Efforts on Sudan: Beware the Pitfalls of Diplomatic Coordination

Establishing an informal but regular contact group of like-minded states and international organizations on Sudan would be an important outcome of the April 15 Sudan conference in London. It should learn lessons from the Friends of Sudan and other international coordination efforts, in the way it engages with Sudanese actors as well as external supporters of the conflict parties.

Commentary at ISPI, 15 April 2025

As the war in Sudan approaches its two-year anniversary, the conflict is set to enter a new phase. Regaining the heart of the capital Khartoum has been a major success – and a morale booster just ahead of the end of Ramadan – for the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), for their part, still control vast swathes of Sudan’s territory west of the Nile. Military action won’t end the war anytime soon. This could be an entry point for a renewed push for a ceasefire

Given this prospect, more effective international coordination is essential. There is currently no unified, regular diplomatic contact group on Sudan, the biggest humanitarian crisis in the world with more than 30 million peopleneeding assistance (and much less getting it). The so-called Extended Mechanism created by the African Union (AU) in the first weeks of the war has only met infrequently and is probably also too unwieldy as a workable mechanism. Sudan special envoys have met in various configurations, including convened by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the sub-regional body for the Horn of Africa, and by Ramtane Lamamra, the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Sudan Envoy. However, none of these have yet resulted in a regular mechanism. 

An overall aim of such a mechanism should be to provide regular updates of the members’ activities and create a platform to provide a modicum of coordination wherever possible. Ideally, it would also lead to more coherence, unity and sincerity in support of a negotiated end to the war, help mobilizing resources to avert (further) famine, and prevent the polarization of regional and international actors that are increasingly taking sides in the war. However, the current geopolitical context means that these objectives are probably no more than wishful thinking.

Why international efforts to end the war have failed so far

The war in Sudan is becoming increasingly protracted. SAF and RSF lead coalitions of armed actors over which they do not have complete control, but whose interests they have to consider in their political positions. Both Abdelfattah al-Burhan as head of the SAF and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (better known as Hemedti) as head of the RSF made clear in their respective Eid speeches at the end of March 2025 that there would be no negotiations. In contrast to previous declarations by the RSF over their readiness to talks, Hemedti now said there would be “only the language of the gun”. The roadmap for peace published by Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs includes a national dialogue and a cabinet of technocrats, but also makes the laying down of arms and withdrawal from all areas currently controlled by the RSF a prerequisite: a negotiated surrender in all but name. 

So, there is no easy opening for mediation. In view of these rejections, international efforts so far relied essentially on three different approaches: security talks focused on a ceasefire and protection of civilians; personal accommodation through a face-to-face meeting between al-Burhan and Hemedti; and mobilizing a civilian bloc as alternative “third force”.

Talks in Jeddah led by the US and Saudi Arabia in May 2023 resulted in a declaration on the protection of civiliansand a one-week ceasefire signed by SAF and RSF. Nevertheless, the parties did not adhere to their commitments, with no consequences for them. At the next round in October/November 2023, the parties did not confirm the ceasefire, and failed to follow through on their individual commitments for improved humanitarian access. Instead of a third round, the US tried to convene a slightly broader group of states and the two belligerents in Geneva in August 2024. However, the SAF delegation did not want to be treated on the same level as the RSF (and avoid exposing its internal differences) and declined the invitation. Lowering their ambition, the US-led coalition of facilitators founded in Geneva focused on improving humanitarian access instead. However, these efforts had limited success, as humanitarian access to fighting zones remained severely hampered in their search for a pragmatic approach, the US were prepared to accord the authorities in Port Sudan more legitimacy by treating al-Burhan as Head of the Transitional Sovereign Council and not just as head of the military. The supposed lead mediator, US Special Envoy Thomas Periello, was, for US security reasons, only able to travel to Port Sudan and meet al-Burhan in November 2024 though, when the result of the presidential elections signaled the foreseeable end of his term with the outgoing Biden administration, weakening the scope of this initiative.

AU and IGAD created several mechanisms for mediation, but were not fully accepted by the SAF: firstly, Sudan remains suspended from the AU because of the coup in October 2021; SAF withdrew from the IGAD initiative after a failed one-on-one meeting with Hemedti was followed by Hemedti attending an IGAD summit in Kampala in January 2024. SAF also rejected Kenya’s role as chair of IGAD’s quartet, a skepticism which only grew in light of the founding of a new RSF-led political alliance with Nairobi’s blessing in February 2025. The AU’s high-level panel on Sudan was very slow to organize talks with civilian actors, which has been its main objective, and failed to follow-up with them for months after two roundtables in the summer of 2024. The AU’s presidential ad hoc committee aims to organize a face-to-face meeting between Burhan and Hemedti, but has never met.

Competition between mediators did not help. Egypt distrusts IGAD as a mediation channel – both because it is not a member state, and because of the dominant role played in it by Ethiopia. It pushes for Sudan’s readmission to the AU (so far unsuccessfully) and organized its own initiative of Sudan’s neighboring countries (in July 2023), with no impact. Being non-African, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, major players in Sudan, are not part of the AU, and are also skeptical of pushing for a renewed civilian-led government in Sudan. When the UAE and Egypt facilitated a secret meeting in Bahrain, SAF and RSF both sent their respective deputy leaders and got relatively far. Yes, negotiations stalled again, and SAF withdrew from the talks, pointing to the RSF’s failed commitment to the Jeddah declaration. Cooperation between the AU and UN envoys remains difficult on the Sudan file. So-called “proximity talks” (i.e. indirect) talks set up by UN Special Envoy Ramtane Lamamra did not bring a breakthrough. Finally, a draft resolution in the UN Security Council co-signed by the UK and Sierra Leone, that would have asked the UN Secretary-General to develop a compliance mechanism for the protection of civilians and called for a cessation of hostilities, was vetoed by Russia in November 2024.

The fractured nature of the warring parties has been a major challenge. The mediation efforts failed to sufficiently account for the complex dynamics within the conflict parties as well as between them and their external backers, including in response to the situation on the battlefield. Competition between would-be mediators allowed Sudanese warring parties to decline invitations, withdraw from negotiations, and to avoid making compromises that could fracture their coalitions of militias, regular forces and mercenaries.

Learning from the Friends of Sudan experience

On April 15, 2025, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy is hosting a ministerial conference on Sudan in London, organised with Germany, France and the European Union. Lammy has vowed to make Sudan a foreign policy priority. The conference is billed as a follow-up to a similar conference in Paris a year earlier, which was co-hosted by the EU, France and Germany, all three of which will co-convene the London meeting with the UK as well. In contrast to Paris, there won’t be a humanitarian pledging element, nor will there be a parallel meeting of Sudanese civilian actors. Instead, the UK will convene around 20 foreign ministers and representatives of international organizations. Better coordination among this group is a central objective.

In doing so, the UK should reflect on the experience of previous coordination mechanisms on Sudan. For decades, the UK was itself part of the Troika (with the US and Norway), which supported negotiations to end Sudan’s Second Civil war and South Sudan’s path to independence in 2011, among other issues. However, the Troika doesn’t appear to be an appropriate grouping on Sudan any longer, given the drastic aid cuts by the US and the Trump administration’s disregard for multilateralism and preference of optics over lasting results.

After the fall of Sudan’s thirty-year dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, the UK was also part of the Friends of Sudan. This was an informal diplomatic group, co-founded by Germany and the US, whose primary purpose was to support Sudan’s transition process. Notably, it included also Egypt, the UAE, Saudi-Arabia, Qatar and the AU, among others. For a while, the Friends of Sudan met regularly at the level of Sudan envoys or senior officials, focusing mainly on coordinating the economic and financial support to the transitional government, including debt relief and setting up a cash transfer program for the parts of the population hit hard by the withdrawal of subsidies and high inflation. After the coup in October 2021, it lost its civilian Sudanese counterpart, and it petered out once the war started and the Sudanese authorities pushed out the UN mission – which had taken over a regular convening role of the Friends of Sudan – a few months later.

Key issues going forward

None of the mediation initiatives so far did have any major impact. Four points will be critical if any new diplomatic coordination mechanism is to even have the chance to influence events in Sudan. 

First, any high-profile conference on Sudan needs to have a link to Sudanese civilian actors. UK diplomats held meetings with Sudanese civil society in the Horn of Africa and the British Director General of African Affairs spoke with the authorities in Port Sudan to collect their perspectives. Still, Sudanese will always question the legitimacy of an international Sudan conference without any Sudanese present. The Paris conference organized a roundtable of around 50 people that represented different types of stakeholders, not just one civilian coalition. Attendees told me that they found it useful, because it had been rare for those diverse perspectives to be in the same room since the start of the war.

Second, any coordination mechanism resulting from the London conference should be nimble and relatively informal. There needs to be some agreement on who to include and how frequently to convene them, but perhaps not much more. It is unlikely to develop strong agency for joint actions. The main multilateral organizations – the UN, the AU, IGAD, perhaps the EU – should be in the lead, if they can be made to act jointly. Like-minded actors need to focus on tangible support to the Sudanese population, especially in light of the massive aid cuts by the US and other countries. While they won’t be able to fill all gaps, they should concentrate on stepping in to fully support the appeal of the Emergency Response Rooms, mutual aid networks. To function, this initiative would need 12 m USD per month, hardly any of which they have received so far. This won’t be enough – the UN appeals for Sudan and the neighboring countries are around 6 bn USD for 2025 – but the ERRs work particularly in areas hardly reached by international aid, where the risk of starvation is among the greatest.

Third, a new diplomatic group as well as the London conference should refrain from normalizing external interference. The Paris conference included a joint communiqué that urged “all foreign actors to cease providing armed support or materiel to the warring parties”. Egypt and the UAE signed this statement – yet, they have continued their support to SAF and RSF. If they were able to sign onto a similar statement, they could do so confident that a lack of commitment would remain without consequences. The foreign ministers present at the meeting should hold these foreign sponsors accountable for supporting warring parties. They should single out the UAE in particular because of their support to the RSF, as described by U.S. Senator Chris Van Hollen and Representative Sara Jacobs, citing a US government briefing. Just this weekend, the RSF captured Zam-Zam camp, Sudan’s biggest displacement camp, after besieging it and neighbouring El-Fasher for many months. The RSF operates advanced drones and artillery to attack El-Fasher and Zam-Zam camp, which it most likely acquired from abroad. 

Finally, those international actors that have not picked a side in Sudan’s devastating civil war should not do so now. Normalizing relations with SAF-led authorities in Port Sudan won’t help people trapped in RSF-held areas nor will it help end the war. Assembling in London, foreign ministers will call global attention to the catastrophe that is the war in Sudan. Outrage without any of these actions would just underline their collective weakness. It is time to take responsibility.