Mobilizing Support, Preventing Instability
This DGAP Policy Brief was published on 26 June 2020.
Germany has helped lead efforts to mobilize international support for Sudan’s transition process since President al-Bashir was ousted last year. To be successful, Germany and its partners must deliver on their promises to support the transitional government’s economic reforms with substantial aid. They should keep Sudan’s diverse partners aligned while broadening their outreach. Sudan is thus a test case for how much political capital Germany will spend on its stated objective of conflict prevention
|Although Sudan’s transition process is a tremendous opportunity for sustainable peace and long-term democratic transformation, the collapse of the transitional government – resulting in a return to military rule and large-scale political violence – remains possible.|
|Currently, Sudan’s economic crisis represents the greatest danger to the transition process. Grievances resulting from spiraling inflation and increasing food insecurity undermine the domestic legitimacy of the transitional authorities.|
|Sudan’s transitional government has recently initiated important economic reforms, including a cash-transfer system to offset macroeconomic adjustments. Donors have long requested such groundwork before they mobilize further aid.|
|Germany should ensure that international support responds to the demands of Sudan’s vibrant civil society and is based on the expectation that the civil-military coalition government sticks to the 2019 constitutional declaration.|