Megatrends Policy Brief 33, 05.03.2025, zusammen mit Wolfram Lacher und Denis Tull
Medium-altitude long-endurance combat drones are increasingly appearing in armed conflicts in Africa. In contexts where governments have historically possessed little or no air power, some expect drones to change the balance of military power between state and non-state forces. But is this actually
the case? This Policy Brief examines the role played by drones in recent conflicts in Mali, Chad and Sudan, finding three aspects to be particularly relevant. Firstly, access: does one conflict party enjoy privileged access to drones and interception technology? Secondly, is the fighting regular or irregular? Are both sides holding territory and fighting on definable fronts, or is it a guerrilla war? Thirdly, is the terrain open or covered? Are the distances involved within the range of available drones? In Africa’s theatres of conflict these factors rarely combine in ways that allow one side to derive a major strategic advantage from the use of combat drones.
Photo: Likely Chinese-made MALE UAV on Nyala airfield, Sudan, January 2025. Source: Maxar/ Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health
Dr. Gerrit Kurtz 