I spoke about the inauguration of the GERD in Ethiopia in several programmes of ZDF including the evening news.
The discourse surrounding the dam serves the leaders of both Ethiopia and Egypt.
Eygpt is certainly highly dependend on the Nile, but highlighting the threat posed by the GERD serves to externalize the government’s responsibility to ensure water security for its vast population, whereas in most cases, water will continue to flow, indeed the operation of the GERD depends on that. Prolonged drought would present a real risk, but that is not imminent.
For Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed, the GERD serves to show the country’s aspiration to become a major power, the government’s investment in essential services, and national unity in times of deep divisions. At the same time, the GERD at the moment produces much more electricity than the Ethiopian economy could normally absorb. Fully one third of all of the country’s electricity production this year is likely to be used by (mainly Chinese) cryptomining companies. Only slightly more than half the population has even access to electricity at the moment, with government plans to expand this reach in the next few years.
The building of the GERD is not just about water security, electricity or economic growth though. It is about regional hegemony, with Ethiopia trying to reclaim its position as a major Nile power, whereas Egypt used to see itself as the main power on the Nile and reserve a veto on upstream development. Ultimately, all riparian countries’ interests would be best served by multilteral cooperation.
Dr. Gerrit Kurtz 